Many industry experts and companies claim AI profitability by 2030 is possible, so I wanted to see how close we really are. This site tracks cumulative spend versus revenue across most major AI companies in one place, showing roughly how much money is flowing into the industry and how far it is from breaking even.

I update these numbers monthly as new reports and financials drop. Perhaps one day the big "No" will become a "Yes", and the question will finally be answered. So far the one clear winner is Nvidia, taking huge profits from the boom by positioning itself as the primary chip supplier to the sector.

All figures are estimated cumulative totals (all-time). Because most of these companies are private, the numbers aren't exact; they are built from leaked financials, SEC filings, earnings calls, and industry estimates from sources like Bloomberg, the WSJ, The Information, and Epoch AI — all referenced below. The punchline "everyone's broke" is intentionally punchy, and shouldn't be taken absolutely literally.

The site includes both big tech infrastructure spend and pure lab spending, which is why companies like Amazon and Google show huge spend figures next to labs like OpenAI or Anthropic — big AI investments, not much direct AI revenue yet. It's worth stressing that this tracks whether AI investment specifically has broken even, not company-wide profitability, which is why Amazon and Google look so far in the red despite being hugely profitable businesses overall.

Spend includes direct R&D costs, compute, and capital expenditure on AI infrastructure (data centres, chips, and networking). Capex is treated as spend despite having long-term asset value; this is intentional. The framing shows the sheer scale of capital being committed to AI before returns materialise, rather than smoothing it across a depreciation schedule. Indirect AI revenue — Google Search lifted by AI Overviews, or Office revenue lifted by Copilot — is excluded, because there is no reliable way to attribute what share of those gains AI is actually responsible for. The $/sec counters use current annual burn rates rather than historical averages, to reflect what's happening right now.

Revenue is the trickiest thing to estimate, as far less information is readily available. The revenue figures here are mostly estimated and extrapolated from ARR figures, so I'd say they currently lean optimistic. I'll keep refining them as more information comes out.

The AI economy is circular: Google funds Anthropic, Anthropic runs on Google Cloud, Amazon funds Anthropic, Microsoft co-invests with OpenAI. Aggregate industry figures therefore double-count some revenue flows. This site is one person's best effort at an honest picture, not a financial audit.

If you have better sources for any of these numbers, or want to contribute, please reach out at isaiprofitable@outlook.com. I want to improve this site as much as possible, every day.

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